If, Then: 2025's pathways, questions and scenarios to consider

Looking at what is important and what we will be talking about in the year ahead is safer territory, and more interesting to do, than outright predictions.

Here we go then with edition number six of this first look down roughly a dozen pathways, possibilities and scenarios to walk through. Disagreement, pushback and a bit of “hey, also consider this” is welcome. You know where to find us.

If it looks like we are starting out this exercise by not making too much of the Trump 2.0 transition at this time…

Then it’s because, at least from this vantage point, there is not (yet) all that much for contractors to do at this time. Just themes, signposts and other markers to follow as part of not being surprised.

In fact, below is a good cheat sheet of Team GovExec content on industry and the transition:

• COMMENTARY: Trump’s promise and the chaos ahead
• WT 360: Unpacking what we can from the Trump 2.0 transition so far
• The knowns and unknowns of a second Trump administration
• Industry execs weigh potential impacts of presidential transition
• Former federal tech leaders share transition wisdom ahead of 2024 election

If 2024 ended with a whole bunch of list dumps that show who officially won seats on the OASIS+ professional services contract vehicle…

Then patience will be a virtue to start out 2025 as the General Services Administration continues to work through the hundreds, and maybe thousands, of proposals to see who met the self-scoring threshold and qualifies for an award. As will be the case for when GSA makes awards official for Alliant 3 and Polaris, the more tech-centric vehicles for all of government.

If we thought that the Veterans Affairs Department could go forth with its massive, go-to T4NG2 technology solutions contract vehicle …

Then we admit to underestimating the power of unhappy bidders to throw a wrench into VA’s plans for moving ahead, and those of the winners. Stay tuned for VA’s report to a U.S. Court of Federal Claims judge on how the department plans to reconsider its evaluation and award decisions. That report is due Jan. 6. VA wants only 30 companies for this new contract, so this fight will get interesting either way.

If what we can now call “CMMC 2.0” is getting more official and start treating its entry into the defense contracting lifecycle as an inevitability…

Then let’s just be straight up with folks who still look at the industrial base’s new cyber and supply chain security standard through an adversarial lens. Yes the industry has to do more, but that also holds true for the government and especially the Defense Department. Making this effort into more of a partnership, less about just compliance, is the path for companies to succeed and thrive.

If the CIO-SP4 contract vehicle continues to cause angst and loathing all across the industry…

Then in this case, speaking for myself and myself only, will invoke the first two rules of Fight Club for this particular contract. The first rule is I will not talk about CIO-SP4. The second rule is I will not, talk, about, CIO-SP4. Until whatever is going on in the courts is all done and this contract becomes something agencies can buy through.

If 2024 was Year One of the U.S.’ push to regain global leadership in computer chip production and 2023 was Year Zero…

Then here for Year Two, we are glad to share with everyone this most helpful guide from the Semiconductor Industry Association for tracking all the CHIPS Act’s manufacturing incentive awards. We also route you back to this October episode of our podcast on the unique nature of this public-private partnership, which is a commitment from both sides. Some commitments are more tight than others, however.

If it feels like we could not stop talking about artificial intelligence in 2023 or 2024, and especially the whole realm of generative AI that is now in the palms of our hands and something we can talk with…

Then the safe bet is we will not stop talking about any of that in 2025 as the inevitable march advances all across the government landscape, albeit at different paces and cadences depending on each customer’s own comfort level. Be certain of how uncomfortable agencies are with AI conversations about brand name tech vendor hype (as are we), but very comfortable with chats centered on missions and outcomes.

If the Defense Department’s big-ticket commercial cloud endeavor called JWCC does not appear to be going very fast on the surface…

Then remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint, plus the nature of this customer means not everything will be put into a public context. In some instances we do however, such as the Army’s pay system migration. For what it’s worth: out colleagues at GovTribe are tracking the activity that is visible so far and it does help to show which directions DOD are going in. The military’s inevitable cloud march goes on.

If, on the other hand, the intelligence community’s own commercial cloud endeavor called C2E does appear to be going very fast on the surface…

Then it’s because this group of agencies is looking beyond just the compute power and storage aspects of cloud. The CIA is looking to move fast on the AI front, which is impossible to do without having what cloud brings. More C2E providers now have the needed certifications to host U.S. government data at all classification levels, so these three-letter agencies look poised to go even faster.

If your GovCon company is marketing and positioning itself out there in the global commercial technology ecosystem as a go-to federal partner, less so on creating a competitor product…

Then your GovCon company is doing what it should be doing. It is not possible to outrun the economics of these commercial tech providers/vendors that just want to make good product. It’s your GovCon company’s job to worry about integration and implementation, plus to steer the customer away from the brand name tech vendor hype conversation we called out earlier as unproductive.

If Amentum gave us the true blockbuster M&A move of 2024 that reset the government services competitive landscape and took up a lot of the transaction conversation…

Then a natural follow-up question is who will provide that of 2025 and, yes, be the one transaction that takes up a lot of the conversation. We do not know and it is hazardous territory to guess “who and what next,” but creativity and outside-the-box thinking are clear themes for companies wanting to go down the path of doing something big. That holds true for their investors/owners too.

If AeroVironment and BlueHalo gave us the true blockbuster M&A move of 2024 that reset the defense technology product market’s landscape and took up a lot of *that* transaction conversation…

Then we largely reiterate the answer to the last question. But also pose these: Which of those that have successfully crossed the tech and business “Valleys of Death” will decide a public listing is its next path forward? Is anyone out there that could look at what AeroVironment and BlueHalo are doing, and think they can do that just as good or better? What shape will the venture capital ecosystem be in at this time in 2025?

If we look back and see that five of the 2024 WT Top 25 companies went through CEO transitions this year starting with RTX, followed by V2X, after which came Accenture Federal Services, then there was Peraton, and of course Boeing in between…

Then we can already look ahead to 2025 knowing that Deloitte’s government practice will have a new leader in place after Jazon Salzetti moves into a new firm-wide role on Jan. 27. KBR is also doing the same as Byron Bright moves up to chief operating officer for the corporation. As for all the Top 100, we can be certain of more to come and naturally watch for those like a hawk. Everyone in the market does.