3 ways to predict if you have a shot at Alliant 2

Recently, I wrote an article about how to get ready for Alliant 2. Since then, many colleagues have asked, “How can I determine if my company has the capabilities to win a slot on this premier IT GWAC?”

The answer is that nobody knows the exact score you need to achieve out of the maximum of 75,600 points. However, we can extrapolate from available data to make an educated guess as to who the winning companies might be and develop an estimate for winning point scores. The time to do so is now, as the final RFP is likely to hit the streets in April.

Picking Alliant 2 winners

First, focus on the Product Service Codes (PSCs). PSC projects encompass 40 percent of the available points. Clearly, if your company has recent projects that match all the PSCs required, you will score quite well. With that in mind, examine reported data for large (greater than $27.5 million) and small business company revenues by the Alliant 2 PSC codes for the past three years.

This analysis can be done at the aggregate level (all Alliant 2 PSC codes) or the individual level (by each required PSC code). The numbers are illuminating because they show which companies should do very well given the scoring schema (keep in mind that not all contracting officers report all revenues so companies may have contracts that are not listed in government data sources). If you are not in the top 60 for unrestricted or top 80 for small business, or close enough to tie at the bottom, your chances of winning a slot may be low.

Second, cross walk this report against current Alliant incumbents. Clearly, many small businesses used Alliant to propel themselves to mid-tier and must now compete for the Unrestricted vehicle. The top companies that have the PSC-related revenues and are Alliant incumbents stand a good chance of winning an award. Remember, PSC codes impact not only relevant experience. The only past performance references companies can use are those related to PSC group projects.

Estimating winning scores for Alliant 2

Third, examine aggregate scores from GSA OASIS, which used a similar scoring methodology. For this analysis, I looked at information on GSA Interact that posted the lowest scores awarded to win a slot on GSA OASIS. The scoring model for GSA OASIS is very similar to that used for GSA Alliant 2. Based on this information, bidders needed 78 percent of the available points to win a slot on the unrestricted vehicle, and 62 percent to win a small business award. If the same ratios apply for Alliant 2, this would mean that you need a minimum score of 59,000 points to win a seat on the unrestricted vehicle and 47,000 points to win on the small business vehicle.

Remember, this is just an estimate and the actual score you need to win could be quite different.

To bid or not to bid?

I recommend that you complete the draft scoring sheet, gather required documentation, and take an objective look at where you are. If you have a high number of PSC matches or are close to the minimum as indicated from the analyses above, then go for it, as bidders who tie at the bottom will still win a slot. If you are not close, think again about whether it is worth the resources needed to bid. This is not an exact science, but the estimates are a good start.