Make no mistake, M&As are hotter than ever
M&A fires keep burning.
During the past year and, the past several months in particular, there has been increased volatility and a decline in the valuation multiples for publicly traded government services companies. In February 2006, these companies were trading at 12.6 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Today those same companies are trading at 9.2 times EBITDA – a 27 percent decline.
The largest declines were experienced by CACI International Inc. and SRA International Inc. because of revised guidance predicting reductions in revenue and earnings per share. CACI's stock lost nearly 20 percent of its value from six months earlier and SRA's stock recently fell to its 52-week low. The declines are thought to be primarily because of the impact of increased spending on the Iraq war and reductions in budgets for information technology modernization and civilian agencies.
ManTech International Corp.'s stock, on the other hand, has maintained its price level after it announced that it expects at least 10 percent growth in revenue and earnings in 2007. The bulk of ManTech's revenue is derived from the intelligence community and mission-critical defense customers. It appears that institutional investors in publicly traded government services companies are becoming more discerning.
Despite the recent downturn in valuations for publicly traded defense and government services companies, mergers and acquisitions activity and multiples for private companies remain at historically high levels.
A number of factors contribute to this valuation gap.
- Access to capital.
- Abundance of buyers.
- Pressure on public companies to fill the growth gap.
- A reduction in the number of quality companies for sale.