Jacobs works to boost ODNI’s forecasting capabilities

Award calls for improving forecasting accuracy of Aggregate Contingent Estimation system

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. is working with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to provide events forecasting technology services under a four-year contract that has a potential value of approximately $11 million.

The award calls for Jacobs to assist ODNI's Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity improve the forecasting accuracy of its Aggregate Contingent Estimation (ACE) system by combining event forecasts from multiple experts, according to a July 5 company announcement.

The INterrelated FOrecasts Reflecting Models behind Experts' Decisions system was developed by Jacobs and its partners on the ACE contract: SRI International Inc., Digital Sandbox Inc., Mercyhurst College, Anser Corp., and Professor Scott Page.

The system weighs individual forecasts not just by superficial demographic information about the experts, but also by the underlying models that are used to derive estimates, the announcement said.

The contract’s effective start date was May 25, 2011.

Jacobs Engineering Group, of Pasadena, Calif., ranks No. 20 on Washington Technology’s 2011 Top 100 list of the largest federal government contractors.

About the Author

David Hubler is the former print managing editor for GCN and senior editor for Washington Technology. He is freelance writer living in Annandale, Va.

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